Weekly El Niño probability tracker, archive of past issues. Latest brief is on the front page; methodology overview is here.
| Date | At least moderate (>+1.0°C) | Strong (>+1.5°C) | Super (>+2.0°C) | 1997/2015 magnitude (>+2.5°C) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 98% | 89% | 69% | 40% |
| 2026-05-11 | 94% | 82% | 61% | 35% |
| 2026-05-04 | 94% | 82% | 61% | 35% |
| 2026-04-25 | 92% | 77% | 51% | 25% |