Weekly El Niño probability tracker, archive of past issues. Latest brief is on the front page; methodology overview is here.
| Date | At least moderate (>+1.0°C) | Strong (>+1.5°C) | Super (>+2.0°C) | 1997/2015 magnitude (>+2.5°C) | Beyond record (>+3.0°C) | Far beyond record (>+3.5°C) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | 100% | 100% | 98% | 91% | 79% | 54% |
| 2026-07-13 | 100% | 100% | 98% | 91% | 79% | 54% |
| 2026-07-06 | 100% | 100% | 95% | 80% | 66% | 42% |
| 2026-06-29 | 100% | 100% | 95% | 80% | 66% | - |
| 2026-06-22 | 100% | 100% | 95% | 80% | 66% | - |
| 2026-06-15 | 100% | 100% | 95% | 80% | 66% | - |
| 2026-06-08 | 97% | 89% | 75% | 66% | 41% | - |
| 2026-06-01 | 98% | 91% | 78% | 66% | 38% | - |
| 2026-05-25 | 98% | 91% | 74% | 45% | - | - |
| 2026-05-18 | 98% | 91% | 74% | 45% | - | - |
| 2026-05-11 | 94% | 82% | 61% | 35% | - | - |
| 2026-05-04 | 94% | 82% | 61% | 35% | - | - |
| 2026-04-25 | 92% | 77% | 51% | 25% | - | - |